Hand history
Cash game: 7 August 2024 · Montenegro · Official report: 8 August 2024
REPORTED HAND / VISUAL REPLAY
Tan Xuan K♦4♦ vs Tony G J♠8♠
Community cards
- 01PreflopTan completes from the small blind to 2BB. The big blind folds. Tony raises the UTG straddle to 12BB, and Tan adds 10BB. With the dead 1BB big blind and 2.5BB ante, the pot is 27.5BB.
- 02Flop6♠5♠3♦: Tan checks, Tony bets 25BB, Tan raises to 80BB, and Tony adds 55BB. Pot 187.5BB.
- 03TurnT♥: Tan bets 191BB, making the pot 378.5BB. Tony shoves 630.5BB on this street. Tan folds. The unmatched 439.5BB is returned; the matched pot is 569.5BB.
- 04RiverNo river is dealt and there is no further betting. The displayed 1,009BB includes the uncalled portion and is not money both players matched.
Preflop: a suited king is still a 36.36% price
From the small blind, Tan completes to the 2BB straddle and then faces 12BB, so he must add 10BB. The pot after the call is 27.5BB, a threshold of about 36.36%. K♦4♦ is a suited high card, not a pair and not the nuts. Out of position, later bets make its equity harder to realize.
Folding saves the 10BB and gives up the implied odds of a very deep 722.5BB stack. Raising can fold out better high cards, but that depth means a raise is not the end of the hand. Suitedness does not replace the price.
Flop: the draw has not bought the river
On 6♠5♠3♦, K♦4♦ is a double gutshot: a deuce makes 2-through-6 and a seven makes 3-through-7, eight outs, plus a backdoor diamond. J♠8♠ is a direct spade flush draw, not a backdoor draw. After checking, Tan faces a bet of about 90.91% pot and raises to 80BB. That line can contain sets, two pair and strong draws, and it can fold out high cards. The four blocks some 4x straight draws and also some weak hands that might have folded.
Tony must add 55BB into a final pot of 187.5BB, about 29.33% immediately. With his own cards known, nine spades remain among 47 cards: about 19.15% to improve on the next card, below this price. The call does not buy a free river, because the turn can bring another large bet. Reraising adds fold equity and also piles money in against sets. No unique frequency follows without full ranges.
Turn: the overbet filters continues and creates a shove
The T♥ completes neither the flush nor the straight. Tony still has 630.5BB behind in a pot of 187.5BB, an SPR of about 3.36. Tan bets 191BB, about 101.87% pot. The size charges draws and weaker made hands that continue, and it narrows what Tony can keep. A small-blind check-raise does not automatically own every nut; the straddler can have overpairs, spade draws and sets.
Checking spends less and keeps a fold available, while giving the flush draw a free card. A smaller bet gives draws a cheaper price and keeps more weak hands in. The 80BB already invested on the flop is a sunk cost. It does not create an obligation to call a shove.
The shove: 30.34% and 34.09% answer different questions
Tony’s turn shove is 630.5BB in total. Tan has already bet 191BB, so a call adds 439.5BB and creates a final pot of 1,448.5BB. The threshold is about 30.34%. Jack-high has little showdown value against an unknown range, so the shove mainly seeks folds from better unpaired high cards, such as king-high or ace-high if they reach this node, while denying equity to draws. Two spades also remove some flush-draw bluffs from Tan, which can make the continuing range more weighted toward made hands. That is a range assumption, not a proven live read.
Across the 44 unseen rivers against this exact J8, Tony wins 15 and Tan wins 29, with no ties: about 34.09% against 65.91%. The 2♠ and 7♠ make Tan a straight and Tony a flush, so they are not clean outs for K4. These 34.09% and 65.91% figures describe Tony and Tan respectively with both exact hands known. Against 33, 66 or two pair, king-high does much worse. Tan folded. Calling the fold an error because of the revealed hand uses information he did not have.
No river: the result only records the fold
After the fold, Tony’s unmatched 439.5BB comes back and the matched pot is 569.5BB. The displayed 1,009BB includes the uncalled part. With no river, there is no river betting decision.
Hide J8 first. Split Tan’s overbet into sets, two pair, straight draws and high cards that give up, then ask what J8 earns from each group in equity and folds. Next replace the shove with a smaller raise and revisit both the 30.34% threshold and the continuing range. Changing only the price does not settle the hand.
Practice range and sizing decisions
Texas GTO Coach provides structured poker training. Review positions, ranges and bet sizes, then compare your reasoning. This article contains no hand-specific solver output.
Historical portraits of Tan Xuan and Tony G, cropped and arranged with AI assistance; not a photograph of this hand and not an endorsement. Tan Xuan: Triton official replay, 7 August 2024, used with permission confirmed by the publisher. Tony G: Lteditor2020, 18 January 2019, Wikimedia Commons, AG nuotrauka.jpg, CC BY-SA 4.0; adapted portrait credited under the same license. Tony G · Lteditor2020 · 2019 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Hand review questions
Does 36.36% require a wide call?
No. It is the immediate showdown threshold for adding 10BB into a pot of 27.5BB. Position and future bets reduce the equity actually realized.
Why not call the flush draw at about 35%?
About 35% assumes both remaining cards are free. The 29.33% pays only for this flop call. The next card is about 9/47, or 19.15%, and the turn can bring another large bet.
Does Tan’s 65.91% against J8 prove the fold was wrong?
No. Tan has 65.91% only against that exact revealed hand; Tony has 34.09%. Tan did not know J8. An unknown shoving range needs a new weighting. This article has no solver frequency or EV.
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